US stops arms supply to Israel, but will that stop Rafah raid?

After many warnings about an upcoming offensive in Rafah, Israel is now really facing a sanction from the US, although it is not formally called that. President Biden confirmed in an interview that the US is holding back a shipment of heavy bombs for Israel that could be used in an invasion of the city in the southern Gaza Strip.

The US does not want the Israeli army to invade Rafah, fearing a massacre of the civilian population. It is estimated that around 1.4 million people live there, most of whom have fled from other parts of Gaza.

The Americans and other Western countries have been warning Israel for months not to launch an offensive in Rafah. But Prime Minister Netanyahu doesn’t care much about it. According to him, such a raid is necessary to defeat the last units of Hamas. At the beginning of this week, Israel captured the border crossing between Rafah and Egypt.

In this article you can read the answers to five questions about the US decision. First of all:

How strong is US support for Israel?

The US has been by far Israel’s most important ally for decades. Since the end of World War II, the US has sent $216 billion in military aid to Israel, says the American think tank Council on Foreign Relations.

Every year, almost $4 billion goes to Israel for weapons and ammunition, but since the terrorist attack by Hamas on October 7, that support has been increased. This involves ammunition and weapons worth billions of dollars.

The exact amount is not known; the US is not as open about this as it is about its support for Ukraine. A senior US Defense Department official said it was difficult to find enough cargo planes to bring the supplies to Israel.

How should we assess this decision by the Americans?

“It is a strong warning,” says Peter Malcontent, lecturer in international relations at Utrecht University and specialized in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. “It is important for the Americans to send this signal. They do not want to contribute to possible war crimes in the event of a possible raid on Rafah.”

The US also wants to increase pressure to reach a ceasefire, he thinks. “Washington benefits from calm in the Middle East, but Biden can also satisfy most voters with a truce. He must do something to accommodate progressive voters as the presidential election campaign heats up at the end of this year.”< /p>

It should be noted that this currently only concerns bombs that can be used in attacks by the Israeli army. Biden said that the US will continue to send defensive weapons that Israel can use to repel attacks, for example from movements affiliated with Iran.

Does this mean that the offensive in Rafah will be called off?

That chance is small. As far as Netanyahu is concerned, Israel will continue fighting without US help if necessary. “If we have to, we will fight with our fingernails,” Netanyahu said in a video message.

Malcontent agrees that Israel can invade Rafah even without the US. “It is not the case that the magazines are suddenly empty. But at some point there will be a shortage of this type of ammunition. So it will have an effect in the long term, but it will not prevent a raid on Rafah.” p>

What does the Netherlands do after this US decision?

The Netherlands has also recently made it clear to Israel that the country should not launch a large-scale ground offensive in Rafah. Outgoing Prime Minister Rutte said two months ago that such a raid would be “a game changer” for the cabinet. In extreme cases, sanctions or other measures against Israel will be discussed, Rutte said.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs calls the latest developments surrounding Rafah “very worrying, but it is too early to speak of a large-scale offensive”. The ministry also says that the Netherlands as a country does not send military goods to Israel. However, since October 7, two permits have been issued to companies to supply military goods. This concerns parts for the Israeli Iron Dome anti-aircraft system and shock absorbers for containers on naval ships.

The Netherlands also supplied F-35 parts to Israel in the first months of the war, but this was stopped by the court. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has appealed against that ruling.

In Germany, support for Israel is also being scrutinized after Biden’s statements. Defense Minister Pistorius said in an interview that Berlin is considering not sending any more weapons.

What does this decision mean for Biden and Netanyahu?

President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu ke