Turkey elections: battle for Istanbul is battle for the country

Less than a year after the presidential elections, Turkey is going to the polls again for local administrators. They are the village heads, district chiefs, municipal councilors and mayors for the next five years.

The eyes are mainly focused on one city: Istanbul. It is the cultural and economic heart of Turkey, and the largest city with at least 17 million inhabitants. Who becomes mayor in Istanbul is important for the entire country.

It could be an opportunity for the Turkish opposition to bounce back after last year’s disappointing result. If Istanbul goes to Erdogan, the opposition will lose its main bastion and tighten its grip on the country. For the largest opposition party CHP it is now or perhaps never.

In his presidential helicopter, President Erdogan arrived last Sunday at an election rally of his AK Party on the site of the old Ataturk Airport in Istanbul. He first flew a few laps above his thousands of supporters. People looked into the air and waved.

The helicopter landed to loud applause and not much later Erdogan stepped onto the stage, as always with his hand gently patting his chest. He called on the public to mobilize those around them to vote. “Call your fellow citizens. Call them!” he shouted. “And by God’s will, we will return Istanbul to its owners on April 1.”

Istanbul is important for Erdogan. It is the city where he started his political career, as mayor in the 1990s. His springboard to national success. “Whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey,” he once said.

Imamoglu great counterpart

But Istanbul is also the city where he suffered the biggest defeat of his career more than twenty years later. In 2019, the AKP board was voted out. A new star of the opposition had risen: Ekrem Imamoglu gave hope to the part of Turkey that is done with Erdogan’s authoritarian rule.

In addition to secular Turks, Imamoglu also addressed Muslims. Many see him as someone who can break the polarization. Imamoglu was immediately regarded as Erdogan’s biggest rival.

Erdogan is now committed to getting Istanbul back. Because he cannot be president and mayor at the same time, he puts forward a loyalist as mayoral candidate: Murat Kurum, bureaucrat and former Minister of Urban Planning and the Environment.

At the campaign meeting it is clear who voters are actually voting for. “We need Erdogan for all cities, not just Istanbul,” said a woman holding a large Erdogan flag. “There is no leader like Tayyip Erdogan.”

In the Uskudar district, Imamoglu’s campaign song blares from the speakers of a large bus. The mayor has been touring the city with his driving campaign for weeks, visiting a different district every day. He opens parks, daycare centers and metro stations. His social media team keeps track of it all with cameras.

Imamoglu hardly gets any space on mainstream media channels. Of that, about 90 percent is at hand, or in the hands, of Erdogan’s government. Online campaigning compensates for a lot. Offline too. Everywhere Imamoglu goes, he climbs on the roof of his bus and speaks to people.

“They say they want to take back Istanbul,” he shouts in a now somewhat hoarse voice. “From whom? I tell you. From the inhabitants. From you!”

In the five years that Imamoglu has been mayor, the government in Ankara has opposed him in every possible way. Financing for major infrastructure projects was withheld, state banks refused the municipality loans. Imamoglu himself was plagued by lawsuits. According to the opposition, these are all attempts to discredit Imamoglu.

Traffic and building priorities

Both Imamoglu and Kurum say they will prioritize earthquake-resistant construction and solving the persistent problem of traffic congestion in the metropolis over the next five years.

Erdogan suggested in a speech that it is better for Istanbul if the local government is from the same party as the national government. “Who is in power in this country? Us. Does that man in Istanbul have the same resources? No.”

Despite a lack of resources, Imamoglu is no less popular than in 2019. He raised funds and loans from abroad to, among other things, complete a metro line. Citizens are happy with Imamoglu’s initiatives to provide food aid to people succumbing to extreme inflation.

But things can still be quite difficult for him. In 2019, Imamoglu had the support of many smaller opposition parties. That’s missing this time. Many parties have their own candidate. Still, the opposition hopes that Istanbulites will realize that these elections are about more than just their mayor.

If Erdogan regains power over Istanbul with Kurum, then there is little h