Trump guilty in hush money case, but he can still enter the White House

It is a dubious honor: Donald Trump is the first former president of the United States to be criminally convicted. He was charged with 34 criminal offenses – and he was unanimously found guilty of all 34 by the twelve-member jury. The case revolves around accounting fraud surrounding the payment of hush money to porn actress Stormy Daniels.

Trump is said to have had an affair with Daniels, which he tried to conceal in the run-up to the 2016 presidential elections for fear of losing voters. To this end, he and his team set up a structure in which hush money was paid to Daniels through his lawyer. This was subsequently described as ‘legal costs’ that fell under his election campaign.

In the near future, judge Juan Merchan will consider the verdict, which is expected on July 11. But the chance that Trump will actually go to prison is small. Certainly not before the elections of November 5: he can still appeal.

There is also a practical problem: as a former president, Trump enjoys 24-hour surveillance. That is hardly possible if he ends up in a regular prison with other inmates.

Consequences of presidency

Trump will be officially designated as the presidential candidate by the Republican Party in July. If the ex-president ends up in jail, he could still be on the ballot.

Because in many states it is not possible for prisoners to vote, but they can be elected themselves. The only requirements are that you are a born American, at least 35 years old, who has lived in the United States for at least the last fourteen years.

Another question is what the Republican Party will do with Trump now that he has been found guilty. So far, party leaders have squarely supported him.

Political process?

“While this defendant may be unlike any other in American history, the trial and verdict were arrived at in the same manner as any other case heard in this courtroom.”

The fact that chief prosecutor Alvin Bragg felt compelled to provide this explanation has everything to do with the defense of Trump and many Republicans, who claim that Bragg is conducting a ‘political trial’. It is a proven recipe from Trump: every unwelcome accusation is labeled as ‘politically motivated’, without providing concrete evidence for this.

But Trump’s message seems mainly aimed at his own supporters. In the polarized American society, few Trump supporters doubt that the cases for which he is being prosecuted are politically motivated and that President Biden’s administration is behind it.

With that pose as a martyr, Trump hopes to mobilize people to vote for him in November. Pro-Trump media see the conviction as ultimate proof that the legal system is politically biased and therefore unjust.

And this is being further encouraged by leaders of the Republican Party. For example, Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson spoke of “a dark day in American history”.

If Trump is elected in November, a conviction could get him into trouble. If he receives a prison sentence, he cannot pardon himself: presidents are only allowed to do that at the federal level, and not if a case occurs in a state. This case was filed in the state of New York.

That would mean that Trump could theoretically be elected president from prison, but would not be able to perform the associated tasks. In that unlikely event, the Vice President may have to take over his duties, or legal proceedings may follow to get Trump released.

Trump is still on trial in three other criminal cases: one about influencing the 2020 election results in the state of Georgia, also a case at state level. The other two concern withholding state secret documents and involvement in the Capitol storming.

These cases both occur at the federal level and are unlikely to be dealt with before the elections. Should Trump win the election, he will almost certainly drop the lawsuits.