Iran presidential elections: mainly conservative men, ‘more space possible’

After the sudden death of Iranian President Raisi, the Iranians will elect a new president in two weeks. Six candidates have now been announced: five conservative men and the moderate reformist Masoud Pezeshkian. Whatever the outcome of the June 28 elections, Iran’s course will not change radically. But with Pezeshkian a little more space is possible, says Iran expert Peyman Jafari.

“Pezeshkian wants change, but understands that the system does not allow major changes. He can strengthen ties with the West, sign international treaties and ensure less oppression in Iran itself when it comes to, for example, the mandatory wearing of headscarf.”

The big question is whether Pezeshkian will succeed in getting enough Iranians to the polls. According to Jafari, this will become apparent in the coming weeks, when the election campaigns and TV debates in Iran get underway. The first debate on television is Monday.

The ayatollah is at the controls

Iranians were actually supposed to go to the polls in 2025, but due to the fatal helicopter crash of the very conservative President Raisi last month, the elections have been brought forward.

Eighty Iranians tried to stand for election, including four women. The so-called Council of Guardians ultimately determines who can participate. Behind the scenes, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is at the controls. He determines the composition of that council, directly and indirectly.

View how the Council of Guardians is composed here:

Six candidates have passed the balloting and are therefore eligible on June 28. Not entirely unexpectedly, it is mainly conservative men who support Khamenei to a greater or lesser extent.

A mini introduction to who may soon lead Iran:

The only moderately reformist candidate is therefore former Health Minister Masoud Pezeshkian. It is a matter of speculation why the Council of Guardians put him on the list. According to Jafari, it may have to do with the turnout percentage and the legitimacy of Iran.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has always said that elections are important to them, unlike for example Saudi Arabia, where no democratic influences are allowed. So they are afraid of a low turnout percentage. They may have thought that Pezeshkian can get more voters, but is not known enough to actually win. That is of course a risk for the Council of Guardians.”

Young people in particular have little confidence in the Iranian system. This has accelerated due to the wave of protests that emerged in 2022 after the death of Mahsa Amini. For months, Iranians took to the streets to fight for more freedoms.

Those protests failed due to harsh repression by the regime, but according to Jafari there was also too little critical mass to really bring about change. That group could cause a surprise in these elections.

“In Iran you have a large gray mass who morally supported the protests, but did not participate. They are disappointed in the regime, but do not immediately see a revolution as a realistic option. The question is whether this group will have the can muster enthusiasm to vote for Pezeshkian.”

Jafari emphasizes that there are divisions among reform-minded Iranians. Many residents will not find Pezeshkian radical enough and will therefore doubt whether they should support him.

Battle between the conservatives

There is also division in the conservative camp. There the battle will mainly be between Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Jalili is a very conservative hardliner and Khamenei’s preferred candidate. “Under his leadership, the conservative line of today will continue,” says Jafari. “He is known for his confrontational politics towards the West. Iran will become further internationally isolated under him.”

Ghalibaf is conservative, but moderate. “With him we will have the current status quo. He will adopt a pragmatic attitude in domestic and foreign policy. For example, he is willing to negotiate a nuclear agreement with Europe and may act less oppressively in Iran itself.”

It therefore remains exciting which path Iran will take and whether and how much room there will be for small changes. Moreover, Supreme Leader Khamenei, together with his own army the Revolutionary Guard, sets the main lines, especially when it comes to foreign policy. The president certainly has room to maneuver within those frameworks, but his power remains limited.